Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 207.761537 253.261295 309.926471 387.025218 491.352721 6.309335e+02 8.377947e+02
2025-05-11 156.374680 208.498255 282.036615 397.859136 584.930740 8.941683e+02 1.492580e+03
2025-05-18 126.227431 178.733527 259.473185 401.004909 663.611392 1.183618e+03 2.483501e+03
2025-05-25 105.012582 155.223673 237.442401 393.808615 718.161898 1.468934e+03 3.872229e+03
2025-06-01 89.436448 136.605585 217.699334 382.335271 757.256478 1.754694e+03 5.836803e+03
2025-06-08 77.676794 121.808352 200.747065 369.996222 787.924025 2.051363e+03 8.699487e+03
2025-06-15 73.999636 120.095997 206.986209 407.646262 963.457485 3.003893e+03 1.972733e+04
2025-06-22 67.505963 112.104671 199.214766 411.079308 1049.100485 3.776272e+03 3.770003e+04
2025-06-29 63.046522 107.159199 196.507410 425.914368 1182.389582 5.042374e+03 9.250721e+04
2025-07-06 57.830703 99.962175 187.596178 421.897219 1250.669059 6.147600e+03 2.162410e+05
2025-07-13 56.378347 99.994125 194.522726 463.978556 1533.804823 9.758343e+03 2.140044e+06
2025-07-20 54.563755 98.988048 198.850661 500.652354 1839.062971 1.549012e+04 7.328667e+09
2025-07-27 52.127721 96.533875 199.767898 529.452939 2160.472808 2.499242e+04 NaN
2025-08-03 49.313626 92.892013 197.091491 545.945174 2449.087330 3.924733e+04 NaN
2025-08-10 46.332601 88.488148 191.624855 550.740205 2682.592525 5.932727e+04 NaN
2025-08-17 43.118679 83.170364 182.800365 539.850417 2799.635020 8.154018e+04 NaN
2025-08-24 40.045734 77.847817 173.124459 522.534865 2853.154964 1.067125e+05 NaN
2025-08-31 37.267376 72.932551 163.844371 503.989045 2880.925417 1.375037e+05 NaN
2025-09-07 37.016098 73.965799 171.553946 560.828976 3738.445214 4.966449e+05 NaN
2025-09-14 35.297593 71.254295 167.897338 566.048374 4095.060206 1.147497e+06 NaN
2025-09-21 34.146911 69.816908 167.829548 588.671178 4751.813447 5.604566e+06 NaN
2025-09-28 32.420787 66.766551 162.329863 582.534280 5020.991970 2.329886e+07 NaN
2025-10-05 32.293956 67.755798 169.699833 647.215278 6706.392487 NaN NaN